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Fear_Smokey ●
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TracyB467
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frostyvol
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frostyvol said...
im pretty sure Stoops didnt lose his entire offensive line in year 2 though. We will also lose Neal, and a handful of significant contributers on defense - McCullers, Couch, Hood, Smith, Miller etc..So 2014 figures to be as difficult, if not more so, than 2013. If there is a turn around coming, it will happen a bit more slowly for us, and it will have to start by outrecruiting the SEC competition.
The journey to becoming an Ironman http://ironmaninthesnow.wordpress.com/
Snowvols
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frostyvol said...
im pretty sure Stoops didnt lose his entire offensive line in year 2 though. We will also lose Neal, and a handful of significant contributers on defense - McCullers, Couch, Hood, Smith, Miller etc..So 2014 figures to be as difficult, if not more so, than 2013. If there is a turn around coming, it will happen a bit more slowly for us, and it will have to start by outrecruiting the SEC competition.
DownTheField
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frostyvol
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frostyvol
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frostyvol said...
i think you and i agree. OP was comparing our plight to that of what Stoops did at OK - going 7-5 in his first year and then 13-0 with a NC in his second year. The point of my post was to indicate as you just have, that in our current predicament, we arent going to be outrecruiting bama, lsu, UF etc.. So it's going to be hard to gain on them. We just finished 10th in recruiting in the league this year, we lose our entire offensive line after next year, along with the various other players i mentioned in my post. Thus, our situation is MUCH different than what Stoops inherited at OK. We arent going to win a NC in our second year. 2014 will be very tough for us, i dont care if Bill Belichick is our coach. Thus changes, IF they are a'comin, will happen slowly. We cant and should not expect a Stoops like turnaround for us.
IF we can get to 7-5 next year, can CBJ convince recruits that we are "on our way back"? Can we make headway in the recruiting battles against our SEC competition next year? What happens then in 2014? Do we build on our improvement, or because of our player losses, do we tread water, or worse, lose momentum? These are the things that will determine our immediate destiny. And for every Stoops like turnaround, there are two dozen other coaches in the same boat who dont get it done and get fired three years later..
DownTheField
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DownTheField said...
I was questioning only this statement: "...it will have to start by outrecruiting the SEC competition".
I agree with the remainder of your original post, and the entirety of the post above.
Overall, we have no idea what is going to happen in 2014. All we know is that we are going to lose some key players in key positions. If CBJ can coach up the younger guys, snag a couple JUCO's, and maybe even sign some big recruits who can help us right away, then there might not even be a drop off. Time will tell.
But yes, it is going to take time. 2015 will be the year for us to really make a push. As long as we can weather the storm of 2014, then we should be just fine.
frostyvol
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frostyvol said...
Well, sure, i suppose. But in these league, where you essentially have a coaching HOF at half the schools, that's asking a LOT.. Let's face it, this is not a league where coaches who are weak x and o guys survive. So the ability to "out coach" another team is really limited. The bottom line is the teams that win, have the most talent. By and large, you dont outscheme people in the SEC, you beat them because you have better players. You think bama beats people on "scheme"? nope. Their players are better, bigger, stronger and faster, so they just line up and beat you. Same thing we used to do. Look at Texas A&M - how successful is that "scheme" without Manziel? How successful is Auburn's scheme without Cam Newton? - we found out last year, not very good. And it's not like CBJ has a scheme that is exclusive to him and no one has an answer for it on offense or defense. If that were true, he would never have had a losing season. But he has. Why? Cause his players werent that good.
great players make great coaches. it begins and ends with getting better recruits. and getting better players to buy in to our program is where CBJ has to excel, even in the face of less than optimal results on the field.
DownTheField
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frostyvol said...
Well, sure, i suppose. But in these league, where you essentially have a coaching HOF at half the schools, that's asking a LOT.. Let's face it, this is not a league where coaches who are weak x and o guys survive. So the ability to "out coach" another team is really limited. The bottom line is the teams that win, have the most talent. By and large, you dont outscheme people in the SEC, you beat them because you have better players. You think bama beats people on "scheme"? nope. Their players are better, bigger, stronger and faster, so they just line up and beat you. Same thing we used to do. Look at Texas A&M - how successful is that "scheme" without Manziel? How successful is Auburn's scheme without Cam Newton? - we found out last year, not very good. And it's not like CBJ has a scheme that is exclusive to him and no one has an answer for it on offense or defense. If that were true, he would never have had a losing season. But he has. Why? Cause his players werent that good.
great players make great coaches. it begins and ends with getting better recruits. and getting better players to buy in to our program is where CBJ has to excel, even in the face of less than optimal results on the field.
Fear_Smokey ●
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frostyvol said...
Well, sure, i suppose. But in these league, where you essentially have a coaching HOF at half the schools, that's asking a LOT.. Let's face it, this is not a league where coaches who are weak x and o guys survive. So the ability to "out coach" another team is really limited. The bottom line is the teams that win, have the most talent. By and large, you dont outscheme people in the SEC, you beat them because you have better players. You think bama beats people on "scheme"? nope. Their players are better, bigger, stronger and faster, so they just line up and beat you. Same thing we used to do. Look at Texas A&M - how successful is that "scheme" without Manziel? How successful is Auburn's scheme without Cam Newton? - we found out last year, not very good. And it's not like CBJ has a scheme that is exclusive to him and no one has an answer for it on offense or defense. If that were true, he would never have had a losing season. But he has. Why? Cause his players werent that good.
great players make great coaches. it begins and ends with getting better recruits. and getting better players to buy in to our program is where CBJ has to excel, even in the face of less than optimal results on the field.
The journey to becoming an Ironman http://ironmaninthesnow.wordpress.com/
Snowvols
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Fear_Smokey said...
Frosty, my point was not to suggest that we will win the National Championship in 2014. I understand the personnel losses that we will incur after this season; our OL, DL, and LBs in 2014 are going to be extremely young and inexperienced. I agree with your assessment here; it's going to take a while before we are playing at an LSU or Bama or Georgia level. My point was to suggest that if we can get 7 wins or, by some miracle 8 in 2013, I think it will significantly expedite our rebirth. My reasoning for that is, like DownTheField said, there are a number of big-time recruits that have wanted to or want to come to Tennessee, but were or are afraid to because of our lack of winning. (see, Vonn Bell, Jalen Hurd, Gabe Wright, etc) If we can show enough progress in 2013 (winning 7 or 8 games, at least getting to a bowl) then our 2014 class could explode; if you don't believe me, look at what Ole Miss did on Signing Day this season. Tennessee, if we win enough games in 2013, could end up being the Ole Miss of the 2014 recruiting class. If that happens, then we start to get some momentum behind us.
Are we gonna go 12-0 in 2014? No way. No chance. BUT, who's to say that a team in it's second season under a competent coaching staff (with an offense that, albeit weak at OL, is going to have as many talented skill players as any other team in the country; as well as a defense that, while inexperienced, will overall be well talented and above all...FAST) can't at least make a bowl game? Again, progress...two bowls in row (something we would have scoffed at 10 years ago) would be marked progress in my opinion. Subsequently, add another good to great 2015 recruiting class, and then we're rolling again.
Again: I do not think we will win the NC in 2014...at all. I'm just suggesting that we don't have to sit here and say "well, this is at least a 4,5,6 year rebuild blah blah blah..." because it doesn't necessarily have to be. I choose to remain positive. I think 2015 is going to be the big year. 2013 though, IMO,will lay the foundation for that.
This post was edited by frostyvol on 2/19/2013 at 5:15 PM
frostyvol
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frostyvol said...
it sounds like we are all on the same page, or at least reading the same book. I do think there is an "it" factor that some coaches have that can be a variable when it comes to achieving success. I.e., there are some coaches who can recruit at an elite level even against a backdrop of limited success. Coaches who can "sell snowballs to eskimoes" for lack of a better analogy. People like Saban, Urban Meyer, who could go to any school with any record and recruit and do well.
Im not sure CBJ is one of those coaches, but he might need to be if we cant at least get to 7 wins next year. IF we can get to 7, which i think would be a successful season, then we will i think really get a true determination of what CBJ will be here with next year's class. With a 7 win season, he should be able to sell recruits on the fact that our program is advancing and we are on the rise, and if he is the recruiter we need him to be, that means getting a class in the top 10. Top 20 classes, even top 15 classes in this league just mean you are treading water. If we get to a 7 win season, no reason for us not to make headway in the recruiting wars and start passing our SEC competition. I think that's a reasonable expectation for us given our tradition and facilities and what we are paying CBJ and his staff. Agree?
Fear_Smokey ●
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A reminder of what can happen in 2 or 3 years....