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Nice! Thanks for the response. Glad to know you guys are way ahead on this stuff.
I know more than a little about Crystal Ball. I bought and used a copy to calculate project estimates. It is a great piece of software for that purpose. It is based on Monte Carlo anylsis for complex models with a lot of variance.
Let's say you want to estimate building a house. Part of that calculation will be plywood. So you estimate say 40,000 - 50,000 square feet of plywood that will cost say $1.00 - 1.40 per square foot. Repeat the same for nails, paint, shingles, labor and so on. Crystal Ball will take all those variations and prepict the estimated the most likely cost will be say $222,111.33 with a range of 166,555.44 to $277,888.99.
Here is what I want to know. How do they create numbersfor plugging into equations for estimating which school a 17 year old will choose? Keep that in mind when you read that the probability is 73% or something.
Having a lot of digitsmakes it neither accurate or meaningful or even scientific.
Your team. All the time.
According to the "Tarets" list, we have only targeted 24 players with 4 or 5 stars. Only one of these is a quarterback, and he is committed to Clemson. Have we really not targeted any other quarterbacks?
Could we possibly get a map of the number of Top 247 prospect by state? Something that shows say, 6 247 players in AL, 4 in MS and so forth?
FOR JUCO players, could their home town be listed as well as the location of the junior college?
That's definitely not accurate. I think you may be missing the rest of the list.
Staff writer for govols247 — http://www.twitter.com/RyanCallahan247 — email@example.com
Can you make it make me a sammich?
247 Brew Master
What is the difference between "Top Targets" and "High Choices"? Take the QB's for instance.
2013. Team 117. Beginning of the new Era.
Awesome guys. This is a really cool addition!! GBO
I absolutely love these new features.
These additions are amazing. They add a lot of accountability and integrity to the player ratings and to the overall 247 network. This site is in a league of its own.
The enhancements do open Pandoras box to ongoing questions of why a recruit dropped (or rised) in rankings, why a recruit with better skill scores is ranked lower than another prospect, etc. I admire this site for it's transparency. Very brave of you!
For ex-Jalen Hurd's link was a given as an example of the new additions. His skill ratings were not what I would expect for a 5 star recruit; '8' was the highest category ranking and several players lower than him had better skill ratings. For ex - I randomly clicked on the # 21 ranked RB, Dalvin Warmack and he had a better aggregate skill rating than Hurd. Id assume the skill ratings aren't the only factors that go into the ratings but curious how Hurd is so highly rated when many guys below him outrank him in the skill categories.
Finally, I love that different skills are assigned to different positions to make them as relevant as possible. However I looked at Vic Whartons profile who is the player I keep hearing could play offense, defense, or be a factor in the return game. In other words- the definition of versatile. Yet he's given a rank of '3' in the "versatility" ranking which I thought would have been his strongest asset. Not trying to split hairs here - just trying to get a better understanding of how this all works? Thx in advance!
I wonder if it would be in possible for the programmers to have a "Team ranking projection if all the crystal ball projections hold up" list. That would be awesome!
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